Monday, October 29, 2012

Biosensor, catching a falling knife?

I was asked by a good friend (who is a very prudent investor-trader), on what is the best price to accumulate for Biosensor.  My immediate reaction was "huh, biosensor?!  catching a falling knife?"  Let me explain and analyse the stock price and the fundamentals of Biosensor.
Biosensor has been on my radar for some time, having made and then lost money on it.   My calculation of intrinsic value based on forecasted EPS is S$1.51.  The current stock price is currently undervalued.
Now, lets take a look at the EPS.

It looks like its R&D has finally started to bear fruits. The EPS is increasing year on year for the past 3 years. There is a potential of long term price appreciation.  The debt to equity ratio is decreasing nicely year on year, while the current ratio is increasing steadily.  The management seems quite wise in dealing with their finances.  I like Biosensor for its increasing earnings and sensible debt policy.  Note, however, that it has not given any dividends yet, making it unsuitable for conservative investors.  Now, let take a look at the charts.  I will be using multiple time frame analysis.

The first chart on the left is the monthly chart, second chart is the weekly chart, and the 3rd chart is the daily chart.  Looking at the daily chart (right chart), it is clear as night and day that Biosensor is falling, and falling fast.  The candles are making lower highs and lower lows, it has pierced the monthly R2 pivot, it trading below the 13SMA, the MACD is falling, Stochastics and RSI showing strong downward force, albeit at oversold levels.  But what did they say about oversold?  A stock can be oversold and remain oversold for a long, long time.
The weekly chart (middle chart) is also bearish.  $1.15 is now at the quarterly R1 pivot as well as the fibo 61.8% level.  But this support does not seem to have any effect (yet).  MACD, Stoch, RSI are also coming down.
Now look at the monthly chart (left).  It is clear that the long term direction of biosensor is upwards.  It is currently making a retracement.  This presents us with an ideal opportunity to enter.
How then can i seize this opportunity?  We have to wait for the price to stop falling down and then go up before we can enter.  The support at 1.15 does not seem like holding.  The next level is $0.97, and a very strong support at $0.79, which is both the fibo 38.2% and the yearly R2 pivot.  I will look out for a bullish candle in the weekly chart for my first entry.  No confirmation, no entry.  I will be documenting every trade i make on this blog with clear entry, target, and stop loss levels.
At this point of writing, buying Biosensor at these levels without confirmation is like.........catching a falling knife.

RECOMMENDATION : SELL (Because it is expected to trend downwards in the short term)

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