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Sunday, January 13, 2013

Making Difficult Decisions

I apologise for not been updating my blog as my mind has been on chess.  I have been meeting friends from the chess community, researching the current chess scene from the internet, watching chess internet videos, and just reading lots of websites of chess players and coaches.  I was also in a reflecting mood for most of this week.

More than 20 years ago, I had the fortune of being trained by Soviet Chess Grandmaster Eduard Gufeld (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eduard_Gufeld).  He has since passed away.  I was then already representing Singapore, but up till this day, I will always remember and am grateful to him for his influence on my chess and on my life.  I am quite unsure if he actually improved my playing strength, but I am very sure his impact on me went beyond the boundaries of chess.  Much what I learnt from him was on principles of engaging an enemy, and the human decision making process.

Tomorrow, Monday, I will be selling on the opening bell, the following stocks that I am holding.  These stocks are very much in the property sector:
Ho Bee
Far East Orchard
Wing Tai
Kepland
Bukit Sembawang
Guocoland

Of the batch of stocks that I bought in end Nov/early Dec, I will be holding on to only:
Semb Corp
OCBC
SuperGroup
Ezion
Tat Hong

When I bought these stocks in end Nov, the plan then was to get out only when  one the the following scenarios take place:
1) Stop Loss of 10% or
2) Profit target of 50% or
3) Profit taking when the market turns down based on charts

However, look at the front page news on Saturday.



I am unsure whether measures will dampen the market in the short term, or in the long term.  Admittedly, I can feel the emotions of greed and fear.  What if I sell and they continue to go up?  What if I hold and they slam down?

Should I still stick to my original plan, or take profit based on news, which was not in my original plans?

One of the rules of decision making that GM Gufeld taught me was this:
"If you opponent makes a move that is unexpected that do not follow classical rules, you may either reply a move that is based on classical rules, or you may react in kind and make an unexpected move that do not make follow classical rules."

After thinking through, my response to our government's move is to deviate from my original plan, and to get out immediately.  The new plan now is to try to enter again later at a lower price, but it depends very much on what my opponent/market is going to do. One thing I know, however, is that when I do choose to enter again, there may be better and stronger stocks to invest than the above stocks.

There is no love between me and my stocks.  They are just my chess pieces.  They can be sacrificed and traded for something better.  The objective is to win in the long run.

2 comments:

  1. Hi Ian

    Agree that the feelings of greed and fear will come into play when something unexpected happens

    But from your earlier post on your entry prices, overall, you stil made a small gain when you liquidated those 6 stockes, definitely not your 50% profit target, but at least it's better than a loss

    I think you made the right call, when unsure, get out and wait for the next move.

    I saw some comments you made on Ho Bee, thought i will just share some technicals from my perspective. From the daily chart, a 50% retracement is at around $1.72, which is also roughly where the 50d moving average is, which should provide some support. Incidentally, that is also about your initial entry price ($1.73). The correction today is almost at the lower end of an up-ward trending channel, if it's breached, it could signify the start of a mini down-ward trending channel. Next support at about $1.60-$1.65.

    Just my amateur analysis. Not vested thou.

    Cheers, CO

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  2. Hi CO,
    I try very hard to think of profit and loss based on individual stocks, but as a portfolio. It helps me to overcome the feelings of greed and fear when I have to cut loss or to take profit. Daily, my focus is on trading the market direction, and industry/sector direction. Hence I actually forgot what was my entry price for Ho Bee! All I need know is that Ho Bee is a fundamentally strong company. But I am not trading the company, I am trading the stock. The stock is subjected to market forces that is most of the time stronger than the company specific force.
    It is also very clear to me that you are a pretty good technical analyst. Definitely not amateur. Take heart!

    ReplyDelete