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Wednesday, January 23, 2013

S&P 500 making new 5 year highs

I realized that updating my blog is not easy. It is taking time from my actual trading.  Analyzing the markets for opportunities also takes time.
There are two major news recently:

  • S&P 500 made a new 5 year high (This ties in with the current level of VIX)
  • Japanese government intervention in financial markets.
I am long in both Singapore and US equities.  As some may already know, I am a subsriber to VectorVest.  There are plenty of tools in Vectorvest.  One of my favorite for long term trading is called "Confirned Calls".

This is a daily chart of the arithmetic average of 7951 US Stocks.  I feel that it gives a slightly more accurate picture of the US market than the Dow, Nasdaq or the S&P500.  The green and red arrows are the "Confirmed Calls".  This is a long term trend following system.  It helps me to plan my trades based on the long term direction.  Notice that the US market has broken out of the resistance and is making new highs.
In the same way, above is a daily chart of the arithmetic average of 756 Singapore Stocks.  I am still holding on to my portfolio and is in fact looking to add to my positions.
The above 2 charts are perfect examples of prices making higher highs and higher lows.  As the saying goes:
"The trend is your friend until it ends".
The US market is heading towards it 6 year highs, while the Singapore market is heading towards its 3 year highs.  While my direction is still up, but I will be very cautious with my positions, taking profits with trailing stops.  No shorts for the time being.

For those who are unaware, there has been a fundamental change in the Japanese financial markets.  This can be clearly seen in the weekly charts of the Nikkei and the USD/YEN.
DollarYen has broken out of the classic head and shoulders neckline.  With the Yen weakening, the export oriented Japanese market should get a much needed boost.

The Nikkei has been on downtrend for decades.  It has now clearly broken out of the downtrend channel.  If the Japanese economy indeed rises, will it help to drive the Asian economy?

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