All good things will come to an end

I have been working in an european MNC for many years. All good things will come to an end. 1st Jan 2011 will be my last day of work.
There are many european expats working here in singapore. For many of these expats, one of their concerns is the currency fluctuations as it will determine their actual renumeration. Mis-management of funds may result in a difference of hundreds of thousands of $$.
For the past year, the SIN dollar has been gaining against the EURO. This means that if the expat is paid singapore dollars, he is getting a better deal - if he left his money alone and not convert back to their EURO currency.
All good things may come to an end.
Let the chart speak to you. 1.70 is a very strong support. It has been holding for past 6 months, and is now being tested for the third time. On the other hand, the momentum of the SIN dollar is very strong. Who will win? The support or the momentum?
I have been asked my views on this topic quite a few times the past days. In all humility, I cannot predict the future. If i could I will be a millionaire now.

Instead of predicting the market, let the market lead us, and we follow. Do not try to second guess the market. The market is always right and is merciless.
Within the next 4 weeks, the market will tell us the direction, whether the support or the momentum will win. We simply follow its cue.
My favorite setup is for the momentum to break the support, but loses steam, and reverses direction. That is the time to enter into to the trade. (See arrows in the chart above)
I would not take short term trades at this moment because there is no clear signs on who is the winner at this point. But for someone who just have to trade or needs to change currencies, i would suggest to go with the trend. The short term trend is down. Sell your euros.

Time to buy gold?

Thinking of investing in gold? It may be more prudent to wait a couple of months. Let me explain using charts.

As the wise man say: Let the chart speak to you.

Gold has been on relentless rise for the past 2 years. Everytime it pulls back to the trendline, it continues to push up. Thus it makes sense to wait for the pullback to the trendline before buying your next gold coin.

You may ask why i think it will pullback to the trendline. There are 2 main reasons. Firstly, this Dec month should close with a Doji, signifying indecision of new buyers. Secondly, based on the decreasing body of candlesticks of the last 5 months, it tells us that the momentum of buying is decreasing with each month.

Please be careful. This coming round of investment may be the last time gold is pushing up. Be ready to sell when your uncle and auntie start asking you to buy gold. Already, some of my friends around me have already bought or are thinking of buying into gold. This is an indication that the euphoria will end soon.

Breakout Alert : Ezra

Ezra attempted to break out of its descending triangle 2 days before Christmas with a bullish long white candle.

After spending much of the past couple of months in consolidation, it finally broke out of its 55 period EMA. It remains to be seen whether breaking turtle rule 20 day high will generate enough momentum to keep the trend up.

For this setup to be profitable, the volume will have to increase much more. I will be monitoring the volume closely in the next few days. Volume was lacklustre on christmas eve.

I am expecting a pullback in next few days, which should form a small flag. The entry trigger will be a signal that the pullback is over. This must be backed by the momentum indicator via MACD histogram and the very important volume.